tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post4441320308300792632..comments2023-10-17T03:59:01.588-07:00Comments on Doctor Housing Bubble Blog: Real Homes of Genius: Today we Salute you Downey. $100,000 off in 3 Months.Dr Housing Bubblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12407700951720008626noreply@blogger.comBlogger31125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-76681590247376981372007-09-16T14:35:00.000-07:002007-09-16T14:35:00.000-07:00I humbly nominate this home for a Real Home of Gen...I humbly nominate this home for a Real Home of Genius Award.<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://cbs2.com/topstories/local_story_258152636.html" REL="nofollow">Stuck House Snarls Traffic On 101 In Hollywood</A>Lost Causehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18396272153746076615noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-73412148203330421382007-09-16T07:04:00.000-07:002007-09-16T07:04:00.000-07:00Peter Viles over at The LA Times picked up this po...Peter Viles over at The LA Times picked up this post and a commenter lleft a good question that has yet to be answered..any thoughts? <BR/><BR/><I>Are we sure banks are holding all these REOs? In the era of mortgage-backed securities and CDOs, who is actually ending up with these properties? The servicing companies? From what I can remember, during the last peak in foreclosure activity, all REO properties were marked down aggressively because they were held by banks under Federal regulations to move non-performing assets off their balance sheets within a fixed time frame, but that was in an era when most mortgage loans were made with a bank's own money. Today that's certainly not the case when the majority of loans, even those made by major banks, were/are being resold after origination. <BR/><BR/>Could it be that the entities holding some or all of these REOs are not under similar regulations to move non-performing assets and therefore can hold them for longer periods of time? </I>Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04349247004635678939noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-9398383714970448302007-09-15T23:59:00.000-07:002007-09-15T23:59:00.000-07:00Very good article. I have been pondering on how m...Very good article. I have been pondering on how much of a price decline house price will be for California? I read an article one time and it mentioned that the UCLA School of Business/Economy (Anderson) was saying that house price in the LA area is about 40% over value. Would house price pull back 40% from peek (around 9/05)? I do agree with them due to the fact that Southern California did experienced about a 30% price pull back from 1990 to 1994 and the price appreciation run was smaller back then. <BR/> <BR/>Any thought and comment?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15917096170427727394noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-88945751217100974132007-09-15T16:16:00.000-07:002007-09-15T16:16:00.000-07:00I'm monitoring a Beazer project under construction...I'm monitoring a Beazer project under construction on Foothill Boulevard in Claremont. <BR/><BR/>This ugly POS "townhouse" complex is probably 1/3 done. A few units are ready, the sales office building is open and the other buildings are in various stages of construction, from foundation to finishing off.<BR/><BR/>Yesterday after lunch I noticed little activity, just some workers toward the rear of the complex apparently working on some "finishing up" units. No one was working on any of the other structures.<BR/><BR/>Could just have been a light day or an early Friday off. However, my curiosity is up on whether they will actually complete the project. If there is any more seriously bad news on Wall Street for these guys, maybe not.<BR/><BR/>It's being built on the last leftovers of a large citrus orchard. Of cousre, we don't need food anymore, just granite counter tops.thamnosmahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08857645872263236111noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-49512176985491480252007-09-15T12:11:00.000-07:002007-09-15T12:11:00.000-07:00I'm a 15 year resident of Downtown Los Angeles. Wh...I'm a 15 year resident of Downtown Los Angeles. When discussing real estate here, the 800 pound gorilla in the room is immigration--especially in Downey. <BR/><BR/>Immigrants inexperienced in financial matters become fodder for the sub prime lending herd and subsequently bid up prices in areas of decay (probably paradise to them). As these pockets of decay expand, areas consistent with the American lifestyle contract--less supply-- more demand--and prices in desirable areas skyrocket. This phenomenon also significantly skews median pricing data (if measurable at all). <BR/><BR/>With the low income immigrant population exploding, a decline in the American population in Los Angeles County, and bargain basement prices further enticing residents to move to other parts of the country, it's basic arithmetic. <BR/><BR/>Obviously, current pricing trends are no way near sustainable.<BR/><BR/>This crisis is not alone caused by immigrants, but if one considers the downward pressures on the lower and middle classes, which they belong to, and to challenges that accompany their condition, Downey and it's surrounding cities could vie for the designation "the belly of the beast".Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03602302693056384109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-19953032463460994402007-09-15T09:14:00.000-07:002007-09-15T09:14:00.000-07:00Great article Dr. Bubble - Howewer the insanity is...Great article Dr. Bubble - <BR/><BR/>Howewer the insanity is not just happening here - have a look at these houses in Ireland and remember to add 30% becuase of the exchange rate...<BR/><BR/>http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?t=704&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=30<BR/><BR/>Also average earning in Ireland are about same as the US - plus no sunUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03032681345386388058noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-79240774463960510412007-09-15T06:02:00.000-07:002007-09-15T06:02:00.000-07:00anns: Wow, I didn't know it was that bad. I mean, ...<B>anns</B>: Wow, I didn't know it was that bad. I mean, it's lovely country up there, but I didn't think they'd gotten into million-dollar mansions.<BR/><BR/>I wonder how many of those 2nd-home owners are Michigan permanent residents, and how many are from out-of-state? I have my suspicions about those weirdos from Illinois. :)Elizabethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06160738569538127620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-16460819094501555382007-09-14T22:46:00.000-07:002007-09-14T22:46:00.000-07:00Hi Dr HB,You might like this one.$750k 4/2 800 sq ...Hi Dr HB,<BR/><BR/>You might like this one.<BR/><BR/>$750k 4/2 800 sq ft.<BR/><BR/><BR/>http://sgv.yahoo.prucalonline.com/details/start.aspx?propid=008I012098997&puid=67eee51b-4637-4493-a982-b74a852e977b&LoopCount=1&MarketId=021&AffiliateId=CA011<BR/><BR/>I saw Maxed Out. I can only shake my head at the government.<BR/><BR/>Thanks,<BR/>Crazed<BR/>aka crazed in Glendale.Crazedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05797463697630537060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-29333932873276328742007-09-14T18:00:00.000-07:002007-09-14T18:00:00.000-07:00This might be a silly question but what on earth a...This might be a silly question but what on earth are those dark blobs floating above the roof of that house???!!<BR/><BR/>Duchess of Calcutta:<BR/><BR/>Most of lower Michigan has the default problem because of job losses.<BR/><BR/>Up here on the "Gold Coast of Michigan", we definitely and asolutely had an enormous bubble with the 2nd home buyers.<BR/><BR/>I'm watching in fascination as they are defaulting on their $350,000, $500,000, $750,000 and even $1,700,000 toys. <BR/><BR/>Our foreclosure rate has gone up 533% since the ARMs started to reset.<BR/><BR/>The lenders taking the hit are not the local banks who are used by the locals but instead are Countrywide, First Century, WaMu and all the other flight-by-night lose-as-a-goose-on-credit operators.<BR/><BR/>The real estate listings are up 450 - 600% and the homes for sale are over 94% expensive 2nd homes.AnnShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03340712611208042507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-44668349302963248692007-09-14T17:50:00.000-07:002007-09-14T17:50:00.000-07:00Yes, Omar, we all approve of DrHB's "good written"...Yes, Omar, we all approve of DrHB's "good written" articles. The hotel looks a little turd-ish, by the way.<BR/><BR/>DrHB, there is a gated townhome community just built in Bellflower three months ago, 1200-1600 sq. ft., $460,000-$560,000. There's an open house every weekend. Last night I drove by and saw only one light on in the entire complex. Maybe it was the kitchen light... someone crying over their new granite countertop, perhaps.alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00161139034333284012noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-31962404081941555092007-09-14T07:46:00.000-07:002007-09-14T07:46:00.000-07:00jomama11: I think that's been the problem in a lot...<B>jomama11</B>: I think that's been the problem in a lot of non-bubble areas. Here in the Midwest, excluding major metropolitan areas, we didn't experience what I'd call a "boom" -- but prices went up while wages barely moved, or even decreased, and unemployment skyrocketed. <BR/><BR/>A lot of people going into foreclosure these days probably would've been fine even after their ARMs reset, if they still had their jobs. As for those who never should have bought houses in the first place, a lot of them were barely making their rent when the lenders got ahold of them -- it doesn't take a high mortgage payment to sink you when you're barely afloat in the first place.<BR/><BR/>Lenders in the Detroit area, as I understand it, are currently being investigated for routing customers into subprime loans when they were prime-eligible and for lying to refinance customers about the terms and risks. There's no way Detroit prices ever boomed in the Californian fashion, but enough paycuts and layoffs will produce the same effect.<BR/><BR/>I wish there were a Midwestern housing blog, but I guess things aren't as flashy around here. We're just kind of poor and feckless.Elizabethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06160738569538127620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-51876942525952929972007-09-14T07:10:00.000-07:002007-09-14T07:10:00.000-07:00Oopshttp://tinyurl.com/yueo3mOops<BR/><BR/>http://tinyurl.com/yueo3mjomama11https://www.blogger.com/profile/00713573924531930199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-4090692389876704012007-09-14T07:07:00.000-07:002007-09-14T07:07:00.000-07:00Dr.HB, here's one of the first articles I've ever ...Dr.HB, here's one of the first articles I've ever seen in the mainstream media that actually starts to discuss the underlying problem. Unsustainable increase in home prices versus wages. Could people finally be figuring it out?<BR/><BR/>http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomeFinancing/WhyYouCantAffordAHome.aspxjomama11https://www.blogger.com/profile/00713573924531930199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-2594920568168156062007-09-13T19:23:00.000-07:002007-09-13T19:23:00.000-07:00I am so glad that even at this stage most of US in...I am so glad that even at this stage most of US in US are making sense in numbers.Been discussing this since 2002 and nobody will believe me. I make top 1-2% salary but stayed out of mad rush. I knew this is all bogus,sale pitches being promoted by self egocentric people who want to make more in cut. Boy I am right,I am sure sooner than later people will realize their mistake. Just every city, in open house just visit you will laugh. some houses are old carpet, old window panes, kitchen cabinet infact nothing changes ever since housse was built in 1950-60 and price for 3/2 in 700,000. Some have spent 20,000 in kitchen, with cheap wood panel, may be granite tops but I ask myself if I do it with some body cheaper will cost no more than 30,000. Price for 3/2 home now is 800,000 and change.<BR/>story look too familiar to many I am sure. In gold rush even dirt will sell, but now I guess real house will sell for price it should be.<BR/>Some people will lose homes, but that was like rented home with interest only payment better than living in apartment for some folks.<BR/>I am not sure who are buying the homes in CA who are out there providing some numbers to keep median deviated to skewed level.<BR/>Houses at higher end are for people who wear armani suites and money for them is just numbers. But folks like us who pay and count on post tax dollars is really hard earned and difficult to waste.<BR/>I am wondering can we run a blogg with whereabout of people who bought home recently and see how they managed to pay and have guts to money for the house which will sell half the price in next may be few months if fed s and banks follow the guideline.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02059739636613466462noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-942515699979029572007-09-13T19:21:00.000-07:002007-09-13T19:21:00.000-07:00Folks, definitely check out this column over at ww...Folks, definitely check out this column over at www.safehaven.com <BR/><BR/>It's all about Anthony Mozilo of Countrywide in Washington today getting his bailout money. It's titled "Mr. Mozilo goes to Washington". I'll try to post the link below, but this message board cuts off the -h-t-m or h-t-m-l at the end of anything I try to paste. Or at least it's done so in the past...maybe it'll work today.<BR/><BR/>http://www.safehaven.com/article-8401.htmthamnosmahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08857645872263236111noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-41231689179990620472007-09-13T17:11:00.000-07:002007-09-13T17:11:00.000-07:00A bit off topic, but, yesterday I had the privileg...A bit off topic, but, yesterday I had the privilege of meeting the one Presidential Candidate that would not support a bail out for the banks and speculators, as now Bush has caved into this very special interest. In fact he is probably the only candidate that would encourage the congress to pass legislation to dismantle the Federal Reserve.<BR/><BR/>This is obviously an endorsement for Ron Paul in 2008, but, as this is generally a forum of fiscally responsible individuals, I figured some of you would have heard of him and been interested in knowing of someone who actually met him -- wonderful man in person, as he is in public.mrfnutshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08633618812230945482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-11434562942906155492007-09-13T15:25:00.000-07:002007-09-13T15:25:00.000-07:00SethmeisterGStart with the US census here: http:/...SethmeisterG<BR/><BR/>Start with the US census here: http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en<BR/><BR/>Enter the town and state. When the page loads with the data, check the tabs at the top –most places in CA have one for 2000 and 2005 or 2006.<BR/><BR/>The one for Downey is 2006 data.<BR/>http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/ACSSAFFFacts?_event=&geo_id=16000US0619766&_geoContext=01000US%7C04000US06%7C16000US0619766&_street=&_county=downey&_cityTown=downey&_state=04000US06&_zip=&_lang=en&_sse=on&ActiveGeoDiv=&_useEV=&pctxt=fph&pgsl=160&_submenuId=factsheet_1&ds_name=DEC_2000_SAFF&_ci_nbr=null&qr_name=null®=null%3Anull&_keyword=&_industry=<BR/><BR/>Remember that data is reported in 2006 but generally reflects the prior year.<BR/><BR/>A state agency may have more current data reported in 2007 for 2006 income. The states report the median incomes of their areas to the US Census annually.AnnShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03340712611208042507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-6781083024418718202007-09-13T14:46:00.000-07:002007-09-13T14:46:00.000-07:00Whoops, sellers, not seller'sWhoops, sellers, not seller'sMeganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09387041422819664987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-56421696418217152412007-09-13T14:45:00.000-07:002007-09-13T14:45:00.000-07:00The Calif Assoc of Realtors has got to be having c...The Calif Assoc of Realtors has got to be having collective heart failure right now. I have never, ever understood their insane commission structure anyway. Who decided that and why have seller's been putting up with it all this time?Meganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09387041422819664987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-70925047228590987072007-09-13T13:55:00.000-07:002007-09-13T13:55:00.000-07:00Some schadenfreude for everyone [hat tip HousingPa...Some schadenfreude for everyone [hat tip HousingPanic]. From rags to riches:<BR/><BR/><I>David M. Crisp 25 president, Crisp & Cole Real Estate, Bakersfield, Calif., www.theagentsyouwant.com<BR/><BR/>In four years, Crisp has gone from waiting tables to being president of his own real estate company, which he launched this year. He’s also opened his own loan company and production outfit, which creates the 30-minute television shows he uses to promote his listings. Crisp’s team, which includes seven unlicensed assistants and eight sales associates, was responsible for $95 million in sales and 355 transactions in 2004. Crisp attributes his success in part to his partnership with Carl Cole, CRS®, GRI, whom he met when both were working as salespeople at Kyle Carter Real Estate. “He believed in me from day one,” Crisp says of his partner, who is 22 years his senior, “I wouldn’t be where I am without him.”<BR/><BR/>Bling is the thing: Crisp insists that his salespeople wear professional attire and be well-groomed. He buys luxury automobiles for his salespeople and has flown clients in private jets to view properties. “Image is key in this market,” he says. “Clients want to feel important and be with a real estate professional who’s successful.”<BR/><BR/>Sky-high goals: One of Crisp’s long-term goals is to build Crisp and Cole Tower, a 12-story, 500-unit condominium building. He also wants to fund the construction of a new building for his church.</I> <A HREF="http://www.realtor.org/rmomag.NSF/pages/feature13030june05" REL="nofollow">6/1/2005 over at Realtor.org</A><BR/><BR/>Today?<BR/><BR/><I>Crisp & Cole's businesses & homes raided by FBI<BR/><BR/>The FBI is saying little about the raids at the homes and businesses of the once prominent real estate duo Crisp & Cole.<BR/><BR/>The FBI began raiding 13 locations about 7 a.m. this morning. Special Agent Steve Dupre works in the FBI office in Sacramento. He says the search warrants were served with the following agencies participating: Bakersfield Police Department, Kern County Sheriff's Department, the Internal Revenue Service, and the California Department of Real Estate.<BR/><BR/><BR/>Today's raids come as the California Department of Real Estate has a number of serious accusations against the once, high profile Bakersfield real estate team, Crisp & Cole. The DRE says it was an investigation, quote, "several months" in the making. The realtors could have their licenses suspended or even revoked.<BR/><BR/></I> <A HREF="http://www.eyeoutforyou.com/home/9737847.html" REL="nofollow">9/12/2007 over at Fox in Bakersfield</A>Dr Housing Bubblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12407700951720008626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-79013211556183116122007-09-13T12:18:00.000-07:002007-09-13T12:18:00.000-07:00Dear Dr. HB,Thank you for educating 'us' (the mass...Dear Dr. HB,<BR/><BR/>Thank you for educating 'us' (the masses) about the important economic lesson unfolding before our eyes. You're doing a great service!<BR/><BR/>It would be great if you could do some projections/analyses for some of the more 'sought-after' neighborhoods in LA (i.e., Santa Monica, Venice, Culver City, West LA, Pasadena, Sherman Oaks etc.).<BR/><BR/>Thanks,<BR/>SigiUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00401426136780278148noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-14025884935749685442007-09-13T12:11:00.000-07:002007-09-13T12:11:00.000-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00401426136780278148noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-43132267721606958002007-09-13T12:05:00.000-07:002007-09-13T12:05:00.000-07:00lionel - LOL!I'm nothing if not consistent. It ch...lionel - LOL!<BR/><BR/>I'm nothing if not consistent. It chaps my hide on a daily basis.speedingpullethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03115650690979498735noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-40455691955321181702007-09-13T11:17:00.000-07:002007-09-13T11:17:00.000-07:00speedingpullet, we may have had this very same con...speedingpullet, we may have had this very same conversation before: I had to come to Seattle to find a California craftsman to live in. Sad. Santa Monica, particularly North of Montana, used to be cute; now it's dominated by ugly, lot-size crap-boxes.Lionelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12624026990027498835noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35190061.post-8902602332829505702007-09-13T09:27:00.000-07:002007-09-13T09:27:00.000-07:00@ Andrew re: new McMansionsSadly, its not only Dow...@ Andrew re: new McMansions<BR/><BR/>Sadly, its not only Downey. A lot of the charming, <BR/>sub-2000 sq ft bunglaows - that attracted people to Santa Monica in the first place - have been torn down and 'Persian Palaces' of incredible opulence (and lack of taste) have been erected in thier place. Of course, it being an SM zipcode, you can then ask anything over $2 million for it, irrespective of lot size...<BR/><BR/>....and from my observations the same type of thing is happening in the south SFV in places like Encino and Sherman Oaks - a lot of mid-century ranch SFRs of around 2000 sq ft (perfectly adequate for a family of less than 15 people) are being torn down to make way for 'villas' so large that they almost touch the lot line on all 4 sides.<BR/><BR/>The thought being 'more house, higher listing price', without taking into consideration that <I>all the neighbours are doing it too</I>. <BR/><BR/>There's parts of the Encino hills and Tarzana where it is literally impossible to find a house under 3000 sq ft. <BR/><BR/>Such a pity, as many of these newer houses are F.U.G.L.Y, ridiculously ostentatious and badly made. <BR/><BR/>For the love of all things holy, stop doing it and leave some housing stock for those of us who don't live in a Tribe and don't want to blow $1,000s a year on heating/cooling a load of empty space.speedingpullethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03115650690979498735noreply@blogger.com