October 10, 2006

ITulip: Animation of Housing Bubble

Interesting look regarding the housing bubble:


Filed in:


New York Crank said...

Interesting diagram. However, I think the real measure of where housing bubbles up in price, deflates down, (or remains on a constant upward trajectory) has to do with the wealth of the people occupying the housing.

The richer the neighborhood -- whether urban such as Park Avenue in New York, suburban or rural -- the less subject to downward fluctuations the market is.

Thus, both Manhattan and the Hamptons are currently holding steady or better, despite some current housing deflation. Betcha the same is pretty true in Beverly Hills.

Dr Housing Bubble said...

That is always the case that certain enclaves will hold their value because they carry a prestige factor. But currently in Southern California places like Compton and Watts have seen the same appreciation as Santa Monica on a percentage basis. For example:

Compton in the end of 2005: $325,000 Median
August 2006: $404,000 Median

An increase of 25% in one year. The only reason I point toward this example is that in Southern California there are spill over effects. Many homes in these areas were purchased by investors as flip units since there is not way rents in these poorer areas will cover the PITI or make the investment positive cash flow.

Not sure how this plays out in New York but there are hundreds of cities in multiple counties all clustered in Southern California in about a 75 mile radius. Thus bust will hit the highest and lowest priced areas hardest while middle class neighborhoods may hold up a little bit longer.

oc_fliptrack said...

Linked from OC_fliptrack...

Check out Google Analytics. Seeing the daily page counts is good encouragement to continue blogging. It lets you know that someone actually cares. :)

Welcome to the BubbleSphere!

Dr Housing Bubble said...

Thanks OC_Fliptrack!

I've linked you from this page. I've also taken your suggestion and added Google analytics to the page.

In regards to Orange County, I feel that we are 6 months to 1 year behind San Diego in terms of trending down. Either way, many markets are turning south fast including:

Phoneix (now negative YoY)
San Diego (a few months negative YoY)

The massive number changes are occurring with sales DECREASES. We are talking about 30 to 40 percent in top markets only from last year.

jojo said...

Coastal and upper end markets still doing reasonably well. Inventory up , but market is clearing at decent prices . Anecdotal evidence that you can sell/buy at 5-7% less than a reasonable list; better feelings move within 30-45 days

These markets always crash last and recover first