October 11, 2006

San Diego Down 4.5 percent YOY - or $42,000 from Peak.

Does anyone notice how the media has been avoiding actual nominal drops in prices? Instead they rather use percentages because somehow this softens the actual reality. I give credit to the following article for posting some actual facts:


In real dollar terms the loss from peak is $42,000. Not a small amount by any stretch. In addition, if you were to sell and bought at the $518,000 peak, you would also be out the additional 6 percent especially in the current buyers market.

Overall the loss would be over $70,000. Forget about money saving renting over buying for the two years and trying to find a buyer at $476,000.

Many have seen the Moody's article that claimed we would see a bottom at -8 percent. Uh, we're going to hit that in November or December not 2008.

Sorry but I have a feeling that the drop will be a lot larger than many have imagined.


Anonymous said...

you are so right on about this. Orange County is down 4.5% in the last 5 months. Moody's predictions are so *obviously* erroneous it borders on the ridiculous!

Dr Housing Bubble said...

If anything, I am shocked that Moody’s is one of only a handful of reports that say real estate will go down. Clearly anyone that has been following the market can see that this December we will see zero to negative appreciation in Orange County and Los Angeles – this isn’t a guessing game the trend is pointing toward this. If you look at the article by Moody’s (I have the raw stats on one of my post) you can see their “dire” predictions range from a decrease of 8 to 10 percent. In San Diego we’re seeing drops of 3 percent per month!

Anyways, time will tell how this all turns out but looking at inventory levels, increased regulations, ARMs resetting, and the fact that appreciation is now gone we are in for an interesting ride!